Traditionally on this page, I have posted reviews of the books that I have read. However, every so often, a book will come along that merits a deeper reflection and a series of articles.
One such book is the work “Antifragile” by the Lebanese-American scholar, essayist, and former options-trader, Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
Let me say, at the outset, that there were some bits of the book that I found hard to comprehend, but I thought that was wonderful! How great is it when a book sends you off on a sparkling learning journey?
Therefore, any mistakes in this or following articles are wholly my own, and I embrace them fully. Indeed, I would welcome your comments and corrections, either on this site or via social media.
So let begin with an overview. There is no doubt that the book is superbly written and structured. It is also, in places, tremendously funny. Mr Taleb tells you what he is going to tell you, describes it to you, and then gives you some time to catch up by telling you what he told you. The author even has the decency to tell you which bits you can skip because they are technical and boring, though they are included in the text for the sake of completion.
However, I did not feel the need to skip ahead.
The book is completed by a cast of characters who pop up to provide examples and explanatory backdrops. Socrates returns and spends time in discussion with the mafia don, Fat Tony. Both have what Taleb describes as “skin in the game,” i.e. they feel the full force of the downside of what they do. What are fun are the all-out attacks that Taleb reserves for the numerous economists and public figures that do not have skin in the game. These personages, Taleb feels, have all of the upsides of successful prediction but have shifted the downside of being wrong elsewhere – often to the public or employees. It is this sort of optionality that I would like to explore in future articles.
But for today, I would like to briefly explore the titular phrase – the antifragility that Taleb describes.
Naturally, the author describes it far better than I, so I would like to butcher his example somewhat if I may. I have recently repeated the thought experiment that Taleb describes with several people; unfailingly, it highlights the gap in perception that we are mainly educated to miss – i.e., antifragility.
Try it now. Ask anyone for the antonym of fragility, and they are likely to respond similarly – i.e. with robust, strong, rugged, unbreakable, tough, and words of that ilk.
But in reality, they are considering the middle ground.
Taleb asks us to consider a parcel. The parcel is marked with the word “fragile.” This means it is harmed by rough treatment. Perhaps it contains a vase that, as it is buffeted around the postal depot, is smashed further and further to smithereens – with no chance of recovering its pristine form.
Yes, it is true. Something that is struck by rare events (Taleb calls these “Black Swans”) without being overly harmed by them is robust, but it is here that Taleb asks us to consider a third category, the true antonym of fragility.
Imagine something that is hit by a low probability, extreme event, which actually benefits from its effects? This is antifragility.
Imagine our parcel that, no matter what poor treatment it receives, actually gets stronger from it? Would not this parcel come with the label “please harm me?”
What struck me when reading the book was simple chronology. It had been written from a pre-covid standpoint – the biggest black swan in one hundred years was just around the corner.
Some companies have failed because they were fragile to such an event, but my mind switches to antifragile organisations. The most obvious example is Amazon, but it is equally valid of all organisations that could change quickly to a delivery model.
Other businesses repurposed during the pandemic. Early in the crisis, many companies changed their dormant production lines to produce necessary PPE, ventilators and other medical equipment, often within days of receiving the drawings and specifications of the articles required.
Even a local pub near me set up its outside space to retail shrubs and plants – others, which I am aware of, challenged their kitchens to make takeaway food for hungry customers. The entrepreneurial spirit abounded, as necessity made it critical to learn quickly.
While it is true that organisations like Amazon and supermarkets were in industries that seemed favoured by lockdown (i.e. people needed supplies bringing to them), these same models had to cope with an unprecedented surge in demand.
For me, the success or otherwise of these swift corporate reimaginings is synonymous with the learning organisation. The concept of the learning organisation is at the heart of this blog. Let us turn to Peter Senge (The Fifth Discipline, 1990) for our definition. He describes the learning organisation as:
“A place where people continually expand their capacity to create the results they truly desire, where new and expansive patterns of thinking are nurtured, where collective aspiration is set free, and where people are continually learning to learn together.”
My feeling is that the collective desire to emerge from the black swan of covid as a stronger organisation rests on the chameleonic learning powers of a critical mass of employees.
Unfortunately, the bitter truth is some employees and some businesses had to fall by the wayside so that those who remain can flourish. This natural selection is a further promoter of antifragility – and this is a topic that we will follow up on in future articles. In this sense, commercial business has some of the traits of antifragility, but only taken as a whole and if some parts necessarily fail. As we have seen, Amazon was antifragile to Covid, but should there be a rise of tech-hating Luddites, it would become extremely fragile overnight!
But for now, let us close by pondering a question. Are all learning organisations necessarily lean organisations? Perhaps, by extension, I am also asking, are antifragile businesses primarily lean businesses?
My gut feeling is that they are not.
But here we come across a stumbling point. For far too long, lean has been interchangeable with the Toyota Production System. In fact, many experts are simply supplying cut and paste versions of TPS to their teams. Only with a deeper understanding does the truth emerge. Lean is just learning how to solve your own problems with your solutions. This is where the term learning organisation becomes much more helpful. If we take the term lean out of the paragraph above, we end up with the rather pleasing learning organisations = antifragile organisations. Other types of commerce may be antifragile, but this is more by placement – because even a stopped clock is right twice a day. All lean wants us to do is to stop doing the stuff that it makes no sense to do. Doesn’t that sound like learning? The nudge we can get from the experience of Toyota is that there is a lot of commonality in our collective challenges.
In this sense, real respect for people and leadership towards noble, community enriching targets become our first line of defence against black swans and the stunning beautiful variation in the world. The first step towards learning is the humility to know that we must. Perhaps this is the first step towards manufactured antifragility too.
In our next article, we will discuss another of the central themes of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s work. We will consider the topic of general iatrogenics. As lean practitioners, we will be familiar with this concept: to what extent can expert interventionism, i.e. the need to do something, be harmful, particularly in relation to problem-solving and continuous improvement?
Simon D. Gary is the author of the book “Super Lean: Unlock Your Company’s Million Dollar Edge.” It is available by following this link.